Prices for avocados are already up 14% from a year ago, even as overall produce costs are nearly flat, according to researcher NielsenIQ.

“This season was different,” said Humberto Solórzano, a producer in Michoacán state — the hub of Mexico’s avocado industry. “The fruit didn’t grow because of the drought, so there’s a very high price for the largest avocados, and extremely low prices for the smaller ones.”

The drought appears to be impacting imports. In the first four weeks of this year, Mexico’s avocado shipments into the US dropped 26% from the same period in 2024, according to farm lender Rabobank. Meanwhile, the price for a box of avocados more than doubled.

Avocados From Mexico promotes the fruit in the US, including currently in a campaign with former NFL star Rob Gronkowski. It doesn’t sound worried. History shows that fluctuations in price haven’t changed demand, according to Álvaro Luque, the group’s chief executive officer.

“They’re willing to pay a premium,” Luque said of US consumers. “People are really in love with this fruit.

”Outside of Mexico, there are only a few options for importing avocados. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. has sourced from other countries including Colombia and the Dominican Republic. Mariano’s, a grocery chain owned by Kroger Co., gets some of the fruit from Chile and Peru, according to Michael Marx, the company’s division president.

Peru exports a small amount of avocados to the US, but its crop could be rerouted from Europe to the US, according to Gabriel Amaro, head of AGAP, the Peruvian industry group that represents agricultural firms.

“We hope the Mexicans overcome this impasse, but in the meantime Peru could supply the US market,” Amaro said. “It is very likely that this would be an opportunity.”

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