The Congressional Budget Office estimates sky-high tariffs promised by President-elect Trump might improve the nation’s fiscal outlook — but at the cost of higher inflation and slower economic growth than would otherwise be the case. The estimates assume other nations slap retaliatory tariffs of the same magnitude on U.S. exports.
As for economic growth, the CBO estimates the tariffs would lower GDP by as much as 0.6% in the next decade. Yes, but: The agency notes the hit to growth might be offset as consumers and businesses replace certain imported goods with those made domestically.
Taking into account the economic effects, the CBO estimates tariffs would lower the budget deficit by up to $2.7 trillion over the next 10 years.
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