The decades of evidence on imports, tariffs, and inflation are finally catching up to many economists and policymakers in government as recent forecasts now show. A December 2024 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report estimated that a global 10% tariff would only lead to a 0.6% increase in prices. Similarly, a February 2025 study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston estimates that Trump’s 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China would only cause an inflation impact of 0.5 to 0.8%. And a 60% tariff on China and a 10% tariff on the rest of the world would only cause an inflation impact of 1.4 to 2.2%.

These results mirror the findings in CPA’s study on a global 10% tariff. We estimate a global 10% tariff would cause consumer prices to rise by about half a percent per year over an anticipated six-year adjustment period. Meanwhile the benefits include $728 billion in economic growth, 2.8 million additional jobs, and a 5.7% boost in household income (equivalent to $4,252).

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