CPA estimates that a universal tariff would generate substantial federal revenue across multiple rate scenarios.

A 10 percent universal tariff would raise about $2.63 trillion over 10 years.

A 5 percent universal tariff would raise about $1.315 trillion over 10 years.

A 2.5 percent universal tariff would still raise about $658 billion over 10 years.

CBO projected that tariff increases implemented in 2025 would reduce primary deficits by $2.5 trillion over 11 years.
Recent inflation data indicate that tariffs are not the primary driver of household price pressure. Over the prior 12 months, commodities less food and energy commodities rose only 1.2 percent.

As the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a $1.9 trillion federal deficit for fiscal year 2026, Congress is under increasing pressure to identify durable budget pay-fors. In most cases, that discussion quickly narrows to three familiar choices: raise domestic taxes, cut spending, or continue borrowing more. But tariffs warrant more serious consideration. They are not only a trade policy tool; they are also a federal revenue instrument capable of generating substantial Treasury receipts while strengthening incentives for domestic production and more resilient supply chains.

Recent CBO estimates show that tariffs are already producing meaningful revenue. In its November 2025 update, CBO projected that tariff increases implemented earlier that year would reduce primary deficits by $2.5 trillion over 11 years if maintained, along with another $0.5 trillion in reduced interest costs from lower federal borrowing, for a total deficit reduction of $3.0 trillion.

Read the article.