Border payment does not determine who bears the cost. While tariffs are paid by importers at the border, U.S. nonfuel import prices remained largely flat through September 2025. This indicates that higher tariff costs were not automatically passed through to consumers.

Exporters are absorbing pressure through price adjustments. Export-price indices for major U.S. trading partners declined by roughly 3.6% in local-currency terms over the past year, showing that exporters have reduced prices or accepted lower real revenues rather than maintaining margins.

Goods prices are not driving U.S. inflation. Tariff-exposed goods contributed just 0.2 percentage points on average to inflation in 2025. Nearly all inflationary pressure came from housing and services – sectors not subject to tariffs – consistent with limited consumer pass-through.

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