The National Retail Federation expects Americans to cross a milestone this season, with holiday sales topping $1 trillion for the first time.

In the new forecast, the trade association projects that November to December sales will rise between 3.7% and 4.2% from last year, reaching $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion. Executives underscored the outsized role of shoppers in the broader economy, noting consumer spending now accounts for about 68% of GDP — the highest share in roughly 15 years.

Even so, the outlook comes with caveats. NRF said retailers plan to hire 265,000 to 365,000 seasonal workers, down sharply from 442,000 last year — a sign of a cooler labor market. And with a federal government shutdown limiting fresh economic data, key forecasters have acknowledged they’re driving in a fog.

The NRF says it is relying on private gauges and modeling while official data is paused. Tariffs add another layer of uncertainty, with retailers trying to hold the line on prices while consumers grow more deal-driven.

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