Trump’s 145% tariffs on China’s goods are threatening to obliterate its access to the world’s biggest economy, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimating that up to 20 million people — or about 3% of the labor force — may be exposed to US-bound exports. A full economic divorce would roil a workforce already drained by widespread salary cuts and layoffs.

Exports have an outsized impact on employment, supporting about 120 million jobs in manufacturing and related services industries, according to an estimate by China Galaxy Securities in 2023. That’s almost a fifth of the overall workforce.

The labor market’s exposure to trade with the US is also significant. Goldman Sachs sees between 10 and 20 million workers linked to exports there. Citigroup Inc. estimates shipments to America could be connected to about 9 million urban jobs.

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