The U.S. ag trade deficit continues to move in the right direction, according to new numbers from USDA.

While the overall number is still massive, the latest forecast predicts 2026’s deficit to fall to $29 billion. That’s $8 billion less than USDA’s projections from December, and $14.7 billion lower than last year.

It’s welcome news for farmers who have seen the ag trade deficit skyrocket since 2022, when the U.S. last had a trade surplus. That year’s $1.9 billion surplus fell to a $17.3 billion shortfall the following year, growing to $31.9 billion in 2024 and finally $43.7 billion in 2025.

“This improved forecast is the result of RECORD SETTING export performance for key commodities,” Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins wrote in a post on X.

She highlighted dairy export value projections being 15% higher than 2025, reaching $9.63 billion thanks to strong demand or U.S. cheese and butter — along with forecasted record exports for ethanol and corn — among the driving factors for the updated numbers.

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